Economy
Fed signals another hike, probably not in October
Markets price about 80% odds of a hike by December; Wednesday's inflation print is the key input.
Source published · In the Daily Brief of 11 October 2026
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, at which rates were raised to 3.75–4.00 percent, show that most officials expect another increase this year.
Markets price about a one-in-six chance of a move on 28 October and roughly 80 percent by December. Wednesday's September inflation report is the key input, and rates, long-term yields and credit spreads all hinge on it.