US inflation reaches 3.7% as September prices jump 0.6%
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months, against a forecast of 3.6%, according to Reuters and Xinhua. Rate-hike odds for the Fed’s October meeting rose.
In the Daily Brief of 15 October 2026
The US Labor Department’s September consumer price index rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% from a year earlier. Forecasters had expected annual inflation of about 3.6%, with energy prices the main driver of the headline figure, according to a preview by MUFG.
Markets responded by raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate rise at its meeting on 27 and 28 October. Xinhua cited CME FedWatch at 37%, while Schwab, citing Bloomberg, put it at 46%, up from about 20% before the release. Citi had said earlier that the core figure was the single data point most likely to decide the question, and core measures are reported differently across outlets, so this edition does not quote them.