Fed expected to hold on Wednesday with a hike priced for December
Economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates at 3.75–4.00% this week, while futures put the chance of a December rise at about 80%; the ECB decides on Thursday.
Source published · In the Daily Brief of 26 October 2026
In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave its target range at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, after a unanimous 25 basis point rise in September, according to Newsquawk. All respondents expect a further rise later, and futures put the chance of a December hike at about 80%, Reuters reported. Investors are also wary of a move a week before the 3 November midterm elections.
The European Central Bank is not expected to raise rates on Thursday, partly because of the strain in French government bonds. Markets price about an 80% chance that the Bank of Canada raises rates on Wednesday. Thursday also brings the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP, forecast at 3.0% annualised, and September PCE inflation, with consensus at 3.6% year on year.