The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75–4% on Wednesday
Futures put the probability of a hold at 92.8% at Tuesday’s close, with a second rate rise of the year expected in December.
Source published · In the Daily Brief of 28 October 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on 27 October under chair Kevin Warsh. Fed funds futures implied a 92.8% probability of no change at the close on Tuesday, up from 84.5% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch data reported by Kiplinger. Reuters reported that markets expect the Fed to keep the target range at 3.75–4% now and to make its second increase of the year in December.
September inflation came in above expectations, and BofA Securities economist Aditya Bhave said there was an argument for an increase this month. Ethan Harris, a former head of global economics at Bank of America, counted four voting members who had signalled support for a hold and two who had signalled support for an increase, and expects a majority for no change with several dissents. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on 26 October.