Quantitative finance and markets

Treasury yields ease as the refunding opens the door to new auction sizes

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% on Friday 6 November, below the levels reached in October. The Treasury dropped the words at least from its guidance on auction sizes, and analysts expect changes in the first half of 2027.

Filed under Markets, Economy

The quarterly refunding raised about $28bn of new cash through $125bn of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year sales, as expected. The change was in the guidance: by removing the words at least, the Treasury left room to adjust sizes, and analysts cited by Reuters expect larger sales of 2-year to 7-year notes and possible cuts at 20 and 30 years.

The rest of the week pulled yields both ways. Thursday’s selloff eased expectations of a December rate rise by the Federal Reserve, while Friday’s strong jobs report kept one in play, according to Yahoo Finance.