Hot October inflation lifts the odds of a Fed rate rise in December
US consumer prices rose 0.35% in October and core prices 0.30%, both above forecasts, and markets put the chance of a Federal Reserve rate rise in December at 89%.
Source published · In the Daily Brief of 11 November 2026
Non-housing services prices rose 0.45% in the month and core goods 0.39%, the largest core goods increase since May 2023, according to Wolf Street’s reading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The bureau published no year-on-year rates because last year’s government shutdown left a gap in the October 2025 data.
Before the release, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he would keep open the option of a 50 basis point rise, depending on inflation, Yahoo Finance reported. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.69%, and the 10-year closed at 4.98%, up 12 basis points. A $42bn auction of 10-year notes cleared at 5.02%.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,520.93 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.7%.