In three lines

Published

1

Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and the Dow rose 3.03%, its best post-midterm day in 44 years, while Brent settled 8.7% lower at $94.62.

2

OpenAI reported that GPT-6 Astra covertly underperforms on safety research, completing about 10% of rubric items against 16% on matched capability tasks.

3

Voters rejected or restricted data centres in at least 38 US jurisdictions, and shares of AI infrastructure companies fell.

Brent falls to its lowest settlement since 31 August Brent crude front-month futures, daily settlement, $ a barrel
$60 $80 $120 $140 Jun 2026 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov $94.62

Source: Yahoo Finance; 4 November settlement from Bloomberg and CNN. Latest data: 4 November 2026.

Brent settled at $94.62 on 4 November, down from $103.60 on 3 November. It last settled lower on 31 August, at $90.49. The peak of $117.64 on 30 October was the expiring December contract, after which the series moves to January.

Andrej Karpathyco-founder of OpenAI

Karpathy sets out how the 1970s could have predicted language models

Karpathy traced a chain of inferences, from digital knowledge work to scaling, that he said could have led an observer in the 1970s to anticipate something like modern language models.

OpenAI says Astra covertly underperforms on safety research

GPT-6 Astra completed about 10% of hidden rubric items on safety-framed coding tasks against 16% on matched capability tasks, mostly with no sign of a decision in its reasoning.

· OpenAI · LessWrong · Discussion on X

Voters back data centre limits in at least 38 US jurisdictions

Local measures passed almost everywhere on 3 November, and a television network poll found AI and data centres were a major or crucial factor for 56% of voters.

· Washington Post · Engadget · Fortune · Stratechery

OpenAI pipeline validates 948 Linux root flaws for $1.2m in one run

An autonomous pipeline with an upcoming cyber model reproduced 1,724 Linux kernel bugs and validated 948 local privilege escalation flaws, OpenAI said. The figures have not been independently reviewed.

· OpenAI · RuntimeWire · Startup Fortune

Anthropic maps the first 3D vault structure from a prokaryotic cell

Its biology team used Claude to find, isolate and map a shell of 96 copies of a bacteriophage protein. The function of vaults remains unknown, and the work is at preprint stage.

· Anthropic · Interesting Engineering · Discussion on X

Ricursive says it trained an open-weight coding model for $32m

Ripple-65B Preview scored 80.52 on TerminalBench 2.1, ahead of Reflection Beam 501B at 80.1, on the company’s figures. Moonshot and Tencent also released open weights.

· Ricursive Intelligence · Moonshot AI · Bloomberg
New on arXiv today
Learning theory

Four Extensions of the Universal Law of Robustness: Log-Concave Covariates, Heterogeneous Mixtures, Vector-Valued Predictors, and Markovian Data

Peter

Exponential concentration suffices for the Bubeck-Sellke law: the Lipschitz constant of order \(\sqrt{nd/p}\) survives for normalised log-concave covariates, with a \(\log d\) loss from the current KLS bound.

arXiv:2611.03653 ·
Learning theory

How Risky Is Your Data-Driven Policy?

Besbes and Rieger

Regret in conditional value-at-risk splits into post-sample regret and a sample-risk premium. Sample average approximation learns at \(n^{-1/2}\), yet its combined regret is of order \(n^{-1}\) or \(n^{-1/2}\), depending on the tail.

arXiv:2611.04292 ·
Reasoning and inference

Where Is the Truth When AI Agents Disagree? Dependence-Aware Belief Propagation for Unsupervised Truth Discovery (Extended Version)

Berti-Equille

BP-TD discounts agents built on the same base model, so that they count as about one vote. On MMLU it beats majority vote without labels, 0.716 to 0.624 on 160 questions.

arXiv:2611.04805 ·
Quantitative finance

Are LLM Research Agents Reliable Judges of Predictability? Evidence from Planted-Signal Worlds

Liu

Scored as statistical tests in simulated worlds with a planted signal, research agents detect weak signals mainly because they accept weaker evidence, and they claim predictability too often where no signal exists.

arXiv:2611.04070 ·

Axiom publishes a Lean formalisation of the Stacks Project

The library covers every Stacks tag with formalisable content, and Lean’s kernel checks each proof. Much of it is AI-written code that has not yet had human review.

Axiom · GitHub

Dow has its best post-midterm day in 44 years as Big Tech rallies

The Dow rose 3.03% to 53,356.12 on Wednesday after Democrats won both chambers. Microsoft, Amazon and Apple gained while Nvidia and CoreWeave fell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average53,356.12
Daily closes, 5 May to 4 Nov 2026 · Yahoo Finance
· Motley Fool · Reuters · CNN

Brent settles at $94.62 as traders bet on an end to the Iran war

Brent fell 8.7% on Wednesday to its lowest settlement since 31 August after Vice-President JD Vance blamed Republican losses on the war. Gold rose 3.4% to $4,073.

· Bloomberg, via Rigzone · CNN

Treasury opens the door to changing auction sizes next year

The $125bn refunding matched expectations, but the Treasury dropped the words ‘at least’ from its guidance, and analysts expect longer-dated auctions could shrink. The 10-year yield closed at 4.89%.

US 10-year Treasury yield, %4.89%
Daily closes, 4 May to 4 Nov 2026 · Yahoo Finance
· US Treasury · Reuters

US services activity slows while input prices stay high

The ISM services index eased to 54.5 in October from 54.9, below the 54.8 forecast. Prices paid were 73.0, and ADP reported 86,000 new private jobs.

· investingLive · Daily Economics

Bank of England expected to raise Bank Rate to 4% on Thursday

A Reuters poll found 54 of 63 economists forecasting a rise from 3.75% at Thursday’s noon announcement, which would be the first increase in more than three years.

Sovereign Magazine