In three lines

Published

1

The S&P 500 fell 4.36%, its worst day since April 2025, and the Nasdaq closed in correction as AI and chip stocks were sold.

2

METR estimated that Anthropic is improving its models about twice as fast as it did between March 2024 and October 2025, mostly because of its own use of AI.

3

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on an 8–1 vote and expects inflation of around 5% by the middle of next year.

Must-readAI · Evaluation

METR estimates Anthropic is improving its models twice as fast

An outside assessment with access to internal data puts the acceleration at about 2x on well-specified tasks. Anthropic redacted most of the evidence METR found most informative.

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Chip index falls 12.25% to its lowest close in six months Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, daily close
8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Jun 2026 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 9,011.14

Source: Yahoo Finance. Latest data: 5 November 2026.

The index closed at 9,011.14 on 5 November, down from 10,268.65 on 4 November. It stands about 38% below its closing high of 14,634.72 on 22 June.

OpenAI launches GPT-6 Cyber to a limited group of customers

OpenAI says the model found at least 81 new Firefox vulnerabilities and went out of bounds in under 1% of a test designed around the Hugging Face incident. The figures are the company’s own.

· CyberScoop · The Verge

OpenAI pledges to pay full power costs at campuses it owns

Two days after voters backed limits on data centres, OpenAI said it would cover electricity and grid costs at future campuses it owns and stop requiring public officials to sign non-disclosure agreements.

· The Neuron · MLQ.ai

Thinking Machines debuts Inkling 2 Small and promises weights next week

The model has 594bn parameters, 17bn of them active, and scores 31 on the Artificial Analysis index. Weights are due under an Apache 2.0 licence after external safety testing.

· Thinking Machines Lab · Business Insider
New on arXiv today
Reasoning and inference

Verifier-Guided Self-Consistency: Test-Time Reasoning with Imperfect Generators and Verifiers

Fadeeva et al.

A stochastic decoder steers generation with step-level and outcome signals while keeping several trajectories for a final vote, and can be read as approximate sampling from a verifier-tilted distribution.

arXiv:2611.06606 ·
Reasoning and inference

Give Up to Get More: Priors, Not Policies, Govern Test-Time Compute Allocation

Bae

The value of one more attempt peaks at intermediate difficulty, so the best static allocation is an inverted U. Thompson Sampling with a verifier and a good prior lifts the solved share from 14% to 27%.

arXiv:2611.06372 ·
Probability

A geometric proof of multivariate self-normalized moderate deviations via ridge regularization

Jing et al.

A Cramér-type moderate deviation theorem for a self-normalised radius statistic in \(\mathbb{R}^d\) holds for every \(a_n = o(n^{1/6})\) under only a finite third moment.

arXiv:2611.05822 ·
Quantitative finance

Hard to Fool: A Bounded LLM Research Loop for Quantitative Finance, and What Two Dozen Campaigns Found

Zhang

An open-source loop lets a language model propose trading hypotheses while fixed code decides. One survivor with Sharpe ratios near 3 in validation fell to 0.26 on its single holdout use.

arXiv:2611.06607 ·

Axiom says it has formalised the entire Stacks Project in Lean

The company says the roughly 7,500-page reference on algebraic geometry is now a single machine-checked library of about 16 million lines. The claim has not been independently reviewed.

· Axiom

AI selloff drives the Nasdaq into correction and hits Asia

The Nasdaq composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00 on Thursday, 11.9% below its record, and the chip index lost 12.25%. South Korea’s Kospi triggered a circuit breaker on Friday.

Nasdaq composite, daily close24,315.00
Daily closes, 6 May to 5 Nov 2026 · Yahoo Finance
· Associated Press · Yahoo Finance · Charles Schwab · The Japan Times · The Asia Business Daily · Kitco

Investors question the timing and price of Anthropic’s listing

Reuters reported, citing four people, that a roadshow planned for the week of 9 November is in doubt and that some investors see a $1.5tn valuation as the high end.

· Reuters, via The Globe and Mail · Investing.com, via Yahoo Finance

Brent rebounds to $98.29 after new attacks on tankers

Brent settled $3.67 higher at $98.29 on Thursday. Eurasia Group cut the odds of a US deal with Iran to 10% from 20%.

Brent crude futures, $ a barrel$98.29
Daily closes, 5 May to 5 Nov 2026 · Yahoo Finance
· Reuters, via Yahoo Finance

Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4% on an 8–1 vote

The first rise since 2023 came with a forecast that inflation will reach around 5% by the middle of next year. Catherine Mann voted for 4.25%.

· Bank of England · MoneyWeek